Why Experienced Physicians Are Walking Away From Medicine

The United States is projected to face a shortage of 13,500 to 86,000 physicians by 2036. More than 1 in 3 active physicians are approaching retirement age. And the force accelerating their exit isn't medicine — it's the documentation, the inbox, and the hours spent at a keyboard instead of with patients.

The AAMC projection: what the numbers actually mean

The Association of American Medical Colleges publishes the most comprehensive physician supply-and-demand projections in the United States. Their 2021–2036 report projects a national physician shortage of 13,500 to 86,000 physicians within the next decade — a range that reflects uncertainty in policy interventions, not uncertainty in direction. The shortage is coming regardless.

These projections assume continued federal and state investment in expanding Graduate Medical Education (GME) residency slots. Without sustained expansion — and Congress has not significantly expanded Medicare-funded residency slots since the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 — actual shortfalls will track toward the higher estimates.

The AAMC also notes that these numbers measure current health utilization patterns. If medically underserved populations accessed care at the same rate as well-served populations, the nation would face an immediate shortfall of an additional 100,000+ physicians today — before accounting for any future retirements.

The aging physician workforce

More than 1 in 3 active U.S. physicians are over age 65 and approaching retirement over the next decade. The physician workforce is aging faster than it is being replaced. Medical school enrollments have grown, but the training pipeline — capped by residency slot availability — cannot absorb the increase fast enough.

Simultaneously, the U.S. population aged 65 and older is projected to grow by roughly 34% by 2036. Older adults require two to three times as many physician visits as younger populations. Demand is accelerating precisely as supply is contracting.

What's actually driving early exits

The AAMC explicitly names four forces accelerating early retirement and career reduction beyond normal aging:

What the recruiting market shows

The AMN Healthcare / Merritt Hawkins Review — the healthcare industry's primary benchmark for physician recruiting and workforce demand — tracks what hospitals and medical groups are offering to attract physicians. Several trends in recent reports reflect the supply pressure directly:

The burnout breakdown by specialty

The AMA's 2025 national physician burnout report — drawn from nearly 19,000 physicians across 106 health systems — found that 41.9% of physicians are experiencing burnout , down from a pandemic peak of 62.8% in 2021. The decline is real, but the specialties with the highest documentation loads remain the most burned out:

In qualitative feedback, physicians consistently named the same four causes: ineffective EHR workflows, excessive administrative and documentation tasks, inadequate clinical support staffing, and leadership transparency. The top two are directly connected to what happens in the chart.

What this means for the physicians who stay

As experienced physicians exit early or reduce hours, the remaining workforce absorbs the volume. Panel sizes grow. Visit slots compress. Documentation backlogs expand. The physicians who stay face a heavier administrative burden than the ones who left — which accelerates the next wave of departures. The shortage compounds itself.

Notes done. Before you leave the building.

NoPajamaTime was built to eliminate the part of medicine that's driving physicians out — not the medicine itself, but the keyboard. Every note finished during the visit. No inbox waiting at midnight.

The physicians who stayed — and found medicine sustainable again — didn't change specialties. They changed what happened after the last patient left.